Outcome and audience

For budget owners deciding whether projected month-end risk needs action.

Before you begin

A budget needs completed cost history. Fewer than seven completed days returns insufficient history; more history can improve model selection.

Where to go

Open Budgets, then choose the forecast for a specific budget.

Complete the workflow

Keep the selected workspace, provider, period, currency, cost basis, and data-through date visible as you work.

  1. Read actual month-to-date and the data-through date.
  2. Separate incomplete-day nowcast from finalized actuals.
  3. Read P50 as the most likely outcome, P80 as conservative planning, and P95 as the high-risk boundary.
  4. Review breach probability, quality grade, model version, and snapshot time.
  5. Base alerts on the configured probability and threshold policy, not one exact-looking number.

Interpret the result

Low quality or insufficient history limits the decision. The last valid snapshot remains preferable to a fabricated replacement after a failed refresh.

Loading, empty, partial, and unavailable states

Loading preserves the current scope. Empty means no records match the authorized scope. Partial or stale data keeps its completed-through boundary visible. Unavailable or permission-denied states explain the missing prerequisite and never substitute zero or another provider.

Provider differences

Completion delay, correction behavior, sparsity, and available history differ by provider and scope.

Synthetic example

Illustrative example · synthetic data Example: a synthetic USD 50,000 budget shows P50 46,210, P80 49,350, P95 52,800, 23% breach probability, and data complete through Aug 14.

Common mistakes

Do not present P50 as guaranteed, hide incomplete days, or compare a stale snapshot with a newer actual period.